熱門(mén)關(guān)鍵詞: 光伏太陽(yáng)能板天窗 防水光伏太陽(yáng)能電池板 U玻璃光伏太陽(yáng)能電池板
對(duì)于210:硅片端尺寸不是問(wèn)題,只要客戶有穩(wěn)定的需求, 隆基股份可以給予穩(wěn)定的供應(yīng),但是210不在隆基測(cè)算的最佳尺寸范圍,所以隆基目前不會(huì)主動(dòng)地推這個(gè)產(chǎn)品,除非客戶有穩(wěn)定的需求,隆基就可以供應(yīng)。210隆基測(cè)算的綜合產(chǎn)量跟最佳區(qū)間(166區(qū)域)單位時(shí)間內(nèi)晶棒的產(chǎn)量非常接近(按重量算)。隆基認(rèn)為210單位面積的成本不會(huì)降低(這也印證了一點(diǎn),中環(huán)說(shuō)210硅片重點(diǎn)節(jié)省成本在電池片與組件端是沒(méi)問(wèn)題的,硅片端成本下降不代表全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈成本和終端產(chǎn)品成本下降)。
關(guān)于異質(zhì)結(jié):現(xiàn)在HIT熱主要是概念炒作,雖然HIT效率高但是性價(jià)比還不是很好,PERC還有提升空間,設(shè)備投資差2.5倍,異質(zhì)結(jié)投資8-9億,PERC2.3億,所以從性價(jià)比看,隆基不會(huì)去投。在電池衰減方面,信越有摻鎵的專利,今年4月份到期,摻鎵后,PERC的衰減會(huì)大幅降低,硼氧復(fù)合體與硼鐵導(dǎo)致的衰減在摻鎵后就不會(huì)那么嚴(yán)重。PERC摻鎵后,HIT的衰減優(yōu)勢(shì)不會(huì)存在。HIT短期衰減要優(yōu)于常規(guī)P型電池,有1%的優(yōu)勢(shì);溫度系數(shù)方面,相對(duì)于PERC有0.1%優(yōu)勢(shì),但這是分地區(qū)的,高溫地帶比如熱帶地區(qū),溫度系數(shù)會(huì)有價(jià)值,10度1%的影響,20度2%,溫帶平均白天溫度比25度高不了太多,所以影響沒(méi)那么大。HIT最近10年技術(shù)進(jìn)步是電池片技術(shù)進(jìn)步里最慢的,跟10年前效率差不多;在成本削減上,裝備投資比較大,成本回收比較難,折舊大,隆基認(rèn)為這個(gè)會(huì)有比較大的削減空間;但是在透明導(dǎo)電膜與銀漿方面相對(duì)來(lái)講削減成本比較困難,現(xiàn)在透明導(dǎo)電膜都用金屬銦,如果所有的都用銦問(wèn)題會(huì)很大(可能意思是說(shuō)會(huì)引起銦的價(jià)格暴漲)隆基認(rèn)為,BIPV比現(xiàn)在所爭(zhēng)論的電池類型、組件類型等都重要,因?yàn)榭蛻羰亲钪匾?,前面的是企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的關(guān)系,但是一旦走向BIPV這些都不是關(guān)鍵要素。
關(guān)于BIPV:BIPV的投資收益可以在20-25年內(nèi)把投資建設(shè)整棟房子的投入收回來(lái)。2020年是BIPV的起點(diǎn)。在中國(guó)是隆基的介入,在美國(guó)是特斯拉推出了第三代產(chǎn)品。對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)有足夠的推動(dòng)力。隆基現(xiàn)在首先做大公司工業(yè)園、物流等大客戶,量大的頭部客戶,暫時(shí)還不會(huì)向居民推開(kāi)。BIPV的壁壘是這是一種建材,所有建材都有的壁壘,就是跟屋頂?shù)慕Y(jié)合必須跟建筑商一起研究。現(xiàn)在隆基已經(jīng)做了很多IP的布局,更多的是外觀與結(jié)構(gòu)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)。主要是客戶認(rèn)可問(wèn)題?,F(xiàn)在還沒(méi)人做BIPV,隆基想做一個(gè)新的藍(lán)海。大型物流公司、工業(yè)園非常有興趣,積極跟公司反饋需求。先進(jìn)的科技公司大數(shù)據(jù)公司、做物流的,海外的一些公司如蘋(píng)果、谷歌
、FACEBOOK等都宣布要100%使用可再生能源,所以國(guó)內(nèi)這些公司也向這些方向靠攏,在工廠設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)就考慮進(jìn)去。
光伏過(guò)去整個(gè)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模是增長(zhǎng)的,這兩年光伏在能源投資占比里達(dá)到40%,是非常高的比例。價(jià)格不是光伏發(fā)展最重要的障礙,價(jià)格是企業(yè)與企業(yè)之間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的手段,而不是拉動(dòng)需求的手段了。拉動(dòng)需求最重要的是讓更多的人理解與了解光伏的價(jià)值,現(xiàn)在很多傳統(tǒng)能源企業(yè)進(jìn)入光伏產(chǎn)業(yè),比如大的石油公司,煤電公司等。這樣自然市場(chǎng)會(huì)擴(kuò)張。還有光伏場(chǎng)景發(fā)掘,比如農(nóng)村的分布式加儲(chǔ)能加柴油備用,可以降低成本。這也是公司介入BIPV(光伏建材)的原因所在。過(guò)去大家一直都在關(guān)注隆基的制造能力,隆基做得還說(shuō)的過(guò)去,但是企業(yè)單靠制造,只能賺薄利,除非行業(yè)一直保持增長(zhǎng),產(chǎn)能建設(shè)速度一直沒(méi)有跟上增長(zhǎng)速度,那還可以獲得更高利潤(rùn),否則單純靠制造,那只能獲取制造該有的利潤(rùn),不會(huì)更多。
隆基認(rèn)為一定要從客戶那找價(jià)值,比制造更多的價(jià)值,制造只是基本功。
關(guān)于業(yè)績(jī)目標(biāo):2020年前6個(gè)月的產(chǎn)能訂出去8成,116占7成。隆基現(xiàn)在M2產(chǎn)能只滿足原來(lái)的訂單,其他產(chǎn)能全部轉(zhuǎn)為166,沒(méi)接的單也是166,現(xiàn)在隆基限制M2產(chǎn)能,M2只接已經(jīng)接的單,新接的M2單只從外面買(mǎi)電池?,F(xiàn)在剩的M2規(guī)格產(chǎn)能是因?yàn)闅W洲與美國(guó)客戶的一些長(zhǎng)單,滿足這些長(zhǎng)單的產(chǎn)能。
現(xiàn)在1季度訂單接滿,2季度8成。未來(lái)收入有目標(biāo),利潤(rùn)沒(méi)目標(biāo),收入目標(biāo)到2024年做到100億收入。隆基有能力拿到30%的市場(chǎng)。今年隆基電池片產(chǎn)能還會(huì)按照之前的產(chǎn)能指引來(lái)完成,明后年指引,董事會(huì)還沒(méi)討論。今年組件產(chǎn)能與指引的25-30GW差異不會(huì)很大。電池片到年底加上海外不到20GW。
什么是bivp太陽(yáng)能建筑一體化
所謂太陽(yáng)能與建筑一體化是將太陽(yáng)能利用設(shè)施與建筑有機(jī)結(jié)合,利用太陽(yáng)能集熱器替代屋頂覆蓋層或替代屋頂保溫層,既消除了太陽(yáng)能對(duì)建筑物形象的影響,又避免了重復(fù)投資,降低了成本。太陽(yáng)能與建筑一體化是未來(lái)太陽(yáng)能技術(shù)發(fā)展的方向。由于太陽(yáng)能熱力系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展與建筑緊密相連,需有建筑業(yè)的大力支持與配合。在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下不能完全依靠行政手段來(lái)強(qiáng)行推廣,我們必須通過(guò)努力,研發(fā)設(shè)計(jì)出令建筑商能主動(dòng)接受和配合的太陽(yáng)能熱力系統(tǒng),或與建筑相結(jié)合的技術(shù)解決方案,讓太陽(yáng)能熱力系統(tǒng)成為建筑不可分割的一部分,以滿足與建筑相結(jié)合的需要。
太陽(yáng)能與建筑一體化技術(shù)的特點(diǎn)
1. 把太陽(yáng)能的利用納入環(huán)境的總體設(shè)計(jì),把建筑、技術(shù)和美學(xué)融為一體,太陽(yáng)能設(shè)施成為建筑的一部分,相互間有機(jī)結(jié)合,取代了傳統(tǒng)太陽(yáng)能的結(jié)構(gòu)所造成的對(duì)建筑的外觀形象的影響;2. 利用太陽(yáng)能設(shè)施完全取代或部分取代屋頂覆蓋層,可減少成本,提高效益;3. 可用于平屋頂或斜屋頂,一般對(duì)平屋頂而言用覆蓋式,對(duì)斜屋頂用鑲嵌式;4.太陽(yáng)能熱水器完全納入建筑部品體系,成為建筑體系不可分割的一部分,與建筑同步設(shè)計(jì)、同步施工、同步后期物業(yè)管理。
For 210: the end size of the silicon wafer is not a problem. As long as the customer has stable demand, Longi Stock can provide stable supply. However, 210 is not within the optimal size range calculated by Longi, so Longi will not actively promote this product at present. The combined yield measured by 210 rods is very close to the rod yield per unit time (by weight) in the optimal interval (zone 166).Longji believes that the cost of 210 unit area will not be reduced (this also confirms that CMC said that 210 silicon wafer focus on cost saving is no problem in the battery and component end, the silicon wafer end cost reduction does not mean the cost of the whole industry chain and the end product decline).
About heterojunction: now HIT heat is mainly concept hype, although HIT efficiency is high but the cost performance is not very good, PERC still have room for improvement, equipment investment difference 2.5 times, heterojunction investment 800-900 million, perc230 million, so from the cost performance, long will not go to cast. In terms of battery attenuation, the letter more gallium doped patent, expired in April this year, after doping gallium, PERC attenuation will be significantly reduced, boron oxygen complex and boron iron caused by attenuation in gallium doped will not be so serious.Perc doped with gallium, HIT attenuation advantage does not exist.Short-term attenuation of HIT is better than that of conventional P-type batteries, with a 1% advantage. In terms of temperature coefficient, it has a 0.1% advantage over PERC, but it is regional. In hot regions such as the tropics, the temperature coefficient will be valuable. It has a 1% effect at 10 degrees, 2% at 20 degrees, and the average daytime temperature in temperate regions is not much higher than 25 degrees, so the effect is not that big.HIT has made the slowest progress in battery technology in the last 10 years, and is about as efficient as it was 10 years ago. In terms of cost reduction, equipment investment is relatively large, cost recovery is difficult, and depreciation is large. Longji believes that there will be relatively large space for reduction. But in transparent conductive film and silver slurry cut costs relatively difficult, transparent conductive film are now using metal indium, if all of them are using indium will be a big problem (may mean causes indium prices) longji think, BIPV than now debate the battery type, such as component type is important, because the customer is the most important, is the enterprise competition in front of relationship, but once toward the BIPV these are not key factors.
About BIPV: The investment income of BIPV can pay for the investment of building the whole house in 20-25 years.The year 2020 is the starting point for BIPV. In China it was Longi's intervention, in the US it was Tesla's launch of the third generation product.There is enough impetus to the industry. Longji is now the first to expand the company's industrial park, logistics and other big customers, a large number of head customers, temporarily will not be pushed to the residents. The barrier to BIPV is that this is a building material, the barrier that all building materials have, is that the integration with the roof has to be studied with the builder. Now Longi has done a lot of IP layout, more is the appearance and structure of intellectual property protection. The main problem is customer approval. No one is doing BIPV yet, and Longi wants to do a new Blue Ocean.Large logistics companies and industrial parks were very interested and actively fed back their demands with the company. Advanced technology companies, big data companies, logistics companies, overseas companies such as Apple, Google, Facebook, etc., have announced that they will use 100% renewable energy, so these domestic companies are also moving in these directions, taking into account the design of their factories.
In the past, the size of the PV market was growing. In the past two years, PV accounted for 40% of the energy investment, which is a very high proportion. Price is not the most important obstacle to photovoltaic development. Price is a means of competition between enterprises, rather than a means of driving demand. The most important thing to drive demand is to let more people understand and understand the value of photovoltaic. Now many traditional energy enterprises enter the photovoltaic industry, such as large oil companies, coal power companies and so on. So the natural market will expand.There are also photovoltaic scenarios, such as distributed energy storage and diesel back-up in rural areas, to reduce costs. This is why the company is involved in BIPV (photovoltaic building materials).In the past we have been focused on longji manufacturing capability, longji done also said in the past, but the enterprise alone, can only make small profits, unless the industry has maintained growth, speed the construction of a productivity has not keep up with growth, it can also get higher profits, or simply by making, the only access to make the profit, not more.
Longi believes that we must find value from customers, more than manufacturing value, manufacturing is just the basic skills.
About the performance target: 80% of the production capacity in the first six months of 2020 is set, and 116 accounts for 70%.Longji's M2 production capacity can only meet the original order, and all other production capacity is changed to 166, and the orders that have not been received are also 166. Now Longji limits the M2 production capacity, and M2 only receives the orders that have been received, and the newly received M2 orders can only be purchased from outside. The remaining M2 capacity is due to some long orders from customers in Europe and America, which can meet the capacity of these long orders.
Now 1 quarter orders are full, 2 quarter 80%.Future revenue is targeted, profits are not. Revenue is targeted to reach $10 billion by 2024. Longi has the ability to capture 30% of the market.This year, Longi's battery production capacity will be completed according to the previous production capacity guidance. The board of directors has not discussed the guidance for the next year or two. This year's component capacity will not differ significantly from the 25-30GW guidance.Battery pieces by the end of the year plus less than 20GW overseas.
What is BIVP Solar Building Integration
The so-called integration of solar energy and architecture is the organic combination of solar energy utilization facilities and buildings. The solar collector is used to replace the roof cover or the roof insulation layer, which not only eliminates the impact of solar energy on the building image, but also avoids repeated investment and reduces the cost. The integration of solar energy and architecture is the development direction of solar energy technology in the future.As the development of solar thermal system is closely connected with buildings, it needs the strong support and cooperation of the construction industry. Under the condition of market economy cannot completely rely on administrative means to force the promotion, we must through the efforts, research and development design make the builders can take the initiative to accept and cooperate with the solar thermal system, or combined with construction technology solutions, make solar thermal system has become an integral part of the buildings, to meet the needs of the combined with construction.
Characteristics of solar energy and building integration technology
1. Integrating the use of solar energy into the overall design of the environment, integrating architecture, technology and aesthetics, solar facilities become a part of the building and combine organically with each other, replacing the influence of the traditional solar structure on the appearance of the building; 2. Using solar energy facilities to completely or partially replace the roof cover, which can reduce costs and improve benefits;3 can be used for flat roof or inclined roof, generally for flat roof with cover type, inclined roof with Mosaic type; 4. The solar water heater is fully incorporated into the building components system and becomes an inseparable part of the building system. It is synchronized with the building design, construction and late property management.
本文標(biāo)簽: 隆基股份
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