三季報凈利潤預增1倍多，股價卻大跌8.6%，被譽為白馬股的隆基股份（601012.SH）令投資者感到費解。“事出反常必有妖”，10月16日當天隆基股份市值單日蒸發(fā)超86億元，總成交量達到35.39億元，如此之高的成交量，與機構(gòu)投資者的“倒手”不無關(guān)聯(lián)。然而，此前一直保持高速增長的隆基股份，為何遭到投資者的看空？全球單晶硅之王，能否繼續(xù)強勢？
      詭異暴跌： 10月15日晚間，隆基股份披露了2019年三季度業(yè)績預告，公司今年前三季度預計實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤34.02億-35.02億元，同比增長101%-107%。其中，隆基股份第三季度的單季歸母凈利潤同比增長就高達263%-289%，業(yè)績表現(xiàn)頗為亮眼。 然而詭異的是，公司股價在10月16日卻遭到資金大規(guī)?！皰伇P”，當天成交量高達35.39億元。有分析認為，在光伏政策和補貼即將退坡時，公司三季度搶裝帶來的高增長利潤，難以持續(xù)。整個光伏行業(yè)面臨政策變動帶來不確定性，是公司股價大跌的一大原因。
       對于業(yè)績高增長，公司解釋稱，報告期內(nèi)，一方面在海外市場需求快速增長的拉動下，公司單晶硅片和組件銷量同比大幅增長，組件產(chǎn)品海外銷售占比快速提升，銷售區(qū)域進一步擴大，海外收入同比增長明顯；另一方面受益于技術(shù)工藝水平提升，公司生產(chǎn)成本持續(xù)下降。 換句話說，隆基股份業(yè)績高增長，主要來源于海外市場。對于國內(nèi)市場，公司并未有所提及。值得注意的是，對于國內(nèi)市場，市場此前普遍看好。根據(jù)此前國家能源局的預測，國內(nèi)2019全年光伏預計新增裝機量40GW-45GW，對應下半年新增裝機28.6GW-33.6GW，環(huán)比上半年大幅增長1.51倍-1.95倍，同比2018年大幅增長43%-68%。投資者對于今年下半年國內(nèi)光伏市場的高預期也源自于此。 然而，從實際裝機情況來看，國內(nèi)市場的需求高峰期并未在三季度到來。中電聯(lián)的統(tǒng)計顯示，8月光伏新增發(fā)電容量1.49GW，同比下降15%，1-8月光伏新增發(fā)電容量14.95GW，同比降幅更是達到55%。行業(yè)表現(xiàn)與市場預期明顯錯位，因此投資者用實際行動，對隆基股份前三季度的表現(xiàn)提出了“質(zhì)疑”。
       作為全球單晶硅龍頭，隆基股份近年來頻頻跑馬圈地，不斷擴大投資規(guī)模。 10月15日公告，公司擬通過旗下全資子公司分別開展滁州二期年產(chǎn)5GW單晶組件項目、咸陽年產(chǎn)5GW單晶組件項目、西安涇渭新城年產(chǎn)5GW單晶電池項目，預計總投資額達63.22億元，以自籌方式解決資金來源。 除上述新項目外，隆基股份半年報顯示，累計已簽訂的投資擴產(chǎn)項目達14個，且大部分項目集中于2018年至今簽訂。其中，已達產(chǎn)項目4個；項目暫緩1個；在建項目9個。 另外，截至2019年8月，隆基股份2019年已發(fā)布9項產(chǎn)能投資計劃，總投資規(guī)模合計約177.7億元，擴張規(guī)模及速度遠超同行。 對于看重未來的資本市場，隆基股份三季度的優(yōu)秀業(yè)績還能否持續(xù)，將是影響其股價最重要的一個因素。
     從領先到追趕：技術(shù)路線選擇是隆基脫穎而出的關(guān)鍵，隆基在行業(yè)盛行多晶硅的時代，提前押注單晶硅。而在光伏行業(yè)單晶硅化進程加快的時候，坐收業(yè)績成果。 據(jù)統(tǒng)計，公司自2012年上市至今，瘋狂擴產(chǎn)，直接融資金額已高達146.90億元，隆基也試圖通過此舉與競爭對手拉開差距。 數(shù)據(jù)顯示，公司營業(yè)收入從2014年36.8億元增長至2018年的219.88億元，年復合增長率高達42.98%。凈利潤也呈現(xiàn)迅速上升態(tài)勢，從2014年的2.99億元上升至2018年的25.67億元，其中2017年公司凈利潤為35.49億元，是近五年的頂峰。

     今年半年報顯示，公司營業(yè)總收入141.11億元，同比增長41.09%；凈利潤20.10億元 同比增長53.76%。雖然隆基一直被譽為單晶硅王者，但競爭對手中環(huán)股份（002129.SZ）的快速發(fā)展，也令隆基腹背受敵。從單晶硅片的市場格局來看，國內(nèi)單晶硅市場已呈現(xiàn)出雙寡頭格局。2018年，隆基和中環(huán)單晶硅片產(chǎn)能分別為28GW和23GW，合計占比單晶硅片總產(chǎn)能的70.8%。在未來單晶硅片擴產(chǎn)時期，中環(huán)仍將是擴產(chǎn)主力的第一梯隊。 更為關(guān)鍵的是，隨著大硅片成為行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢，中環(huán)在技術(shù)迭代上頻頻領先，而隆基股份似乎從行業(yè)領先者變?yōu)樽汾s者。
     據(jù)悉，光伏行業(yè)提升單塊硅片面積已是大勢所趨，通過增加電池有效受光面積來增加組件效率和功率，節(jié)約土地、施工等成本，并且有效提升硅片企業(yè)產(chǎn)能，進而降低成本，最終實現(xiàn)LCOE（平準化度電成本）最優(yōu)。 今年6月隆基推出166毫米硅片，由于尺寸達到目前下游電池企業(yè)生產(chǎn)冗余極限，被認為是單晶硅片設計的最大可能。
     然而，兩個月后，中環(huán)就發(fā)布了210毫米光伏大硅片系列產(chǎn)品。在尺寸上，中環(huán)打破了行業(yè)默認的166毫米極限，將硅棒尺寸從8英寸提升至12英寸水平。中環(huán)方面表示，由此配套的疊瓦組件，將功率提升至600瓦級別(當前市場平均300W級別，部分高效產(chǎn)品400W)。 根據(jù)中環(huán)股份的測算，210比166在電站建設環(huán)節(jié)節(jié)約12%的BOS成本（除組件以外的系統(tǒng)成本），相應的LCOE（平準化能源成本）降低4.1%。 更有投資分析人士提出，“210產(chǎn)品基于12英寸，能夠?qū)⒍入姵杀鞠陆?%，同等條件下，電站的毛利率能夠提高6%?！?/span>中環(huán)推出210毫米的大硅片，將大尺寸推到了極致，有分析指出，中環(huán)此舉實現(xiàn)了三個否定——否定現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品、否定現(xiàn)有技術(shù)、否定現(xiàn)有自我。無疑，這一產(chǎn)品將對整個產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條進行重塑。
       雖然12英寸大尺寸光伏硅片還有待產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈驗證，但一般而言，行業(yè)投資者更青睞于先進的技術(shù)。中環(huán)已經(jīng)提出2020年16GW的210硅片投產(chǎn)計劃，聯(lián)合產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的伙伴加速210硅片的產(chǎn)業(yè)化。從股價表現(xiàn)來看，中環(huán)股份近一年交易日漲幅超過120%，隆基股份近一年漲幅也超過1倍，不過在10月16日大跌后，隆基股份股價在10月18日再度下跌3.5%。 單晶硅之王，是否就此“隕落”，時間會給出答案。

Net profit in the third quarter is expected to more than double, the share price fell 8.6%, known as the white horse stock Longji shares (601012.SH) to make investors confused. "Abnormal things will be demon", October 16 that day Longji shares evaporated more than 8.6 billion yuan in a single day, the total turnover reached 3.539 billion yuan, such a high turnover, and institutional investors "hand" is not related. However, has been maintaining high growth of Longji shares, why was investors short?Can the king of global monocrystalline silicon continue to be strong?

Weird slump: October 15 evening, Longji shares disclosed the results of the third quarter of 2019 forecast, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.402 billion to 3.502 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year growth of 101%-107%. Among them, Longji shares in the third quarter of a single quarter to the mother of net profit growth as high as 263%-289%, the performance is quite bright. However, oddly enough, the company's share price was heavily "sold" on October 16, with a turnover of 3.539 billion yuan that day. Some analyses believe that when the photovoltaic policy and subsidies are about to decline, the company grabbed the high growth profit brought by the installation in the third quarter, and it is difficult to sustain. Uncertainty about the policy changes facing the entire photovoltaic industry is a big reason for the stock price drop.

As for the high growth of performance, the company explained that during the reporting period, on the one hand, driven by the rapid growth of overseas market demand, the sales volume of monocrystalline silicon wafers and components of the company increased significantly year on year, the proportion of overseas sales of components products increased rapidly, the sales area was further expanded, and overseas revenue increased significantly year on year. On the other hand, benefiting from the improvement of technological level, the company's production costs continue to decline. In other words, Longji shares high growth performance, mainly from overseas markets. The company did not mention the domestic market. It is worth noting that for the domestic market, the market had generally bullish.According to the previous forecast of the National Energy Administration, the domestic annual PV installed capacity is expected to be 40GW-45GW in 2019, corresponding to the new installed capacity of 28.6GW-33.6GW in the second half of the year, a substantial increase of 1.51 times -1.95 times from the first half of the year, and a substantial increase of 43%-68% compared with 2018. Investors' high expectations for the domestic PV market in the second half of this year also come from this. However, from the actual installed capacity, the peak demand of the domestic market did not arrive in the third quarter. According to the statistics of China Electricity Federation, the new photovoltaic power generation capacity in August was 1.49GW, down 15% year on year, and the new photovoltaic power generation capacity from January to August was 14.95GW, down 55% year on year.Industry performance and market expectations are clearly misplaced, so investors with practical action, Longji shares in the first three quarters of the performance of the "question".

As the world's leading monocrystalline silicon, Longi shares in recent years frequently horse to circle the field, and constantly expand the scale of investment. On October 15 announcement, the company plans to carry out Chuzhou second annual production of 5GW single crystal module project, Xianyang annual production of 5GW single crystal module project, Xi 'an Jingwei New City annual production of 5GW single crystal battery project through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, the total investment is expected to reach 6.322 billion yuan, to solve the source of funds by self-financing.In addition to the above new projects, Longji's semi-annual report shows that a total of 14 investment and production expansion projects have been signed, and most of the projects have been signed since 2018. Among them, 4 projects have reached production;1 project was postponed; Nine projects are under construction. In addition, as of August 2019, Longji Stock has released 9 production capacity investment plans in 2019, with a total investment scale of about 17.77 billion yuan. The expansion scale and speed are far faster than peers. For the value of the future of the capital market, Longji shares in the third quarter of the outstanding performance can continue, will be the most important factor affecting its share price.

From leading to catching up: the choice of technical route is the key for Longi to stand out. Longi made an early bet on mono-crystalline silicon in the era of polycrystalline silicon in the industry. And in the photovoltaic industry, when the process of single crystal silicification is accelerated, the performance results. According to statistics, since the company went public in 2012, the crazy expansion of production, direct financing amount has reached as high as 14.690 billion yuan, Longji is also trying to open a gap with competitors through this move. Data showed that the company's operating revenue increased from 3.68 billion yuan in 2014 to 21.988 billion yuan in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.98%. Net profit also showed a rapid upward trend, rising from 299 million yuan in 2014 to 2.567 billion yuan in 2018, of which the company's net profit in 2017 was 3.549 billion yuan, the peak in the past five years.

This year's semi-annual report shows that the company's total revenue is 14.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 41.09%; Net profit was 2.01 billion yuan, up 53.76 percent year on year. Although Longi has long been hailed as the king of monocrystal silicon, it has also been hit by the rapid growth of rival CMC Holdings (002129.SZ). From the perspective of the market pattern of monocrystalline silicon wafers, the domestic monocrystalline silicon market has presented a dual oligopoly pattern. In 2018, Longji and Zhonghuan monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is 28GW and 23GW respectively, accounting for 70.8% of the total monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity. In the future monocrystalline silicon wafer expansion period, Central will still be the main expansion of the first echelon.More importantly, with the development trend of large silicon wafers in the industry, CMC has taken the lead in technological iterations, while Longji shares seem to be changing from the industry leader to the pursuer.

It is reported that the photovoltaic industry to improve the area of a single silicon wafer has been the trend of The Times, by increasing the effective light area of the cell to increase module efficiency and power, save land, construction and other costs, and effectively improve the production capacity of silicon wafer enterprises, and then reduce costs, and ultimately achieve the optimal LCOE (levelization cost per kilowatt hour). In June this year, Longji launched 166-millimeter silicon wafer, which is considered to be the largest possible design of monocrystalline silicon wafer due to its size reaching the current redundancy limit of downstream battery production.

However, two months later, CMC launched a series of 210mm large photovoltaic silicon wafers.In terms of size, CMC broke the industry's default 166-mm limit and raised the rod size from 8 inches to 12 inches. According to CMC, the matching imbricate components will increase the power level to 600 watts (the current market average is 300 watts, and some efficient products are 400 watts). According to the calculation of CMC, compared with 166, 210 saves 12% BOS cost (system cost other than components) in the construction link of the power station, and the corresponding LCOE (leveled energy cost) reduces by 4.1%. "The 210 product, based on 12 inches, can reduce the cost per kilowatt hour by 6%, and the gross profit margin of the plant can be increased by 6% under the same conditions," said an investment analyst. The introduction of 210mm silicon wafers has pushed the large size to the extreme. According to some analysis, this move has achieved three negations -- negation of the existing products, negation of the existing technology and negation of the existing self. Undoubtedly, this product will reshape the entire industrial chain.

While 12-inch large photovoltaic wafers have yet to be proven by the industry chain, industry investors generally prefer advanced technologies. CMC has proposed a 16GW 210 wafer production plan in 2020, and is cooperating with industrial chain partners to accelerate the industrialization of 210 wafers. In terms of share price performance, CMC shares have risen more than 120% in the past year, while Longji shares have more than doubled in the past year. However, after a sharp drop on Oct. 16, Longji shares fell another 3.5% on Oct. 18. Time will tell if the king of monocrystalline silicon is going to fall.