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隆基股份市值蒸發(fā)千億!值得抄底嗎?
返回列表 來源: 藍(lán)經(jīng)財(cái)經(jīng)觀察 發(fā)布日期: 2021.03.28 瀏覽次數(shù):

       春節(jié)后,A股進(jìn)入了一場(chǎng)全面大回調(diào)中,股價(jià)連日暴跌。春節(jié)前基金抱團(tuán)的各種龍頭股,在這場(chǎng)回調(diào)中跌得最快,其中就包括光伏行業(yè)的龍頭股— 隆基股份。股價(jià)跌停,蒸發(fā)千億自2月28日開始,隆基股份就開始回調(diào),跌多漲少,尤其是最近幾天下跌更是厲害。 
3月8日,隆基股份直接跌停,3月9日繼續(xù)下跌6.15%,截止3月10日收盤,隆基股份收盤價(jià)位85元每股,相比最高點(diǎn)125元每股,已經(jīng)跌去了32%。以最新價(jià)計(jì)算,相比最高點(diǎn)時(shí)的股價(jià),隆基股份已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)掉了高達(dá)1500多億元的市值!隆基股份為什么連日暴跌甚至單日跌停? 
從板塊來看,整個(gè)光伏板塊都表現(xiàn)頹勢(shì),光伏原材料的價(jià)格有關(guān)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從上周開始,光伏原材料價(jià)格上漲明顯。 
其中,國內(nèi)單晶復(fù)投料成交均價(jià)為110.8元每千克,環(huán)比上漲4.23%;單晶致密料成交均價(jià)為108元每千克,環(huán)比上漲4.45%;單晶菜花料成交均價(jià)為105.3元每千克,環(huán)比上漲4.88%;多晶用料成交均價(jià)為63.3元每千克,環(huán)比上漲8.58%。原材料漲價(jià),導(dǎo)致成本上升,隆基股份也只能宣布其硅片產(chǎn)品提價(jià),漲幅9%左右!產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲,對(duì)整個(gè)光伏行業(yè)都是大利空,隆基股份作為光伏行業(yè)當(dāng)之無愧的龍頭,股價(jià)受影響下跌也就在情理之中了,但仍不至于到達(dá)跌停的程度。 而另一重影響的因素,便是當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)情緒了!最近市場(chǎng)上的基金踩踏仍在繼續(xù)發(fā)酵中,而隆基股份恰巧就是基金抱團(tuán)股中一員。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,隆基股份被大量基金重倉持有,是偏股基金重倉股。其中,廣發(fā)基金管理有限公司持有的隆基股份股票占比達(dá)到2.49%!作為光伏行業(yè)的龍頭股,被基金公司大量重倉持有也無可厚非。但是,這種抱團(tuán)行為并不可持續(xù)。由于市場(chǎng)情緒反轉(zhuǎn)后,基金贖回潮出現(xiàn),基金公司為了應(yīng)對(duì)不得不清倉部分權(quán)重股,這也加劇了隆基股份的下跌,導(dǎo)致3月8日直接跌停。但是,隆基股份的暴跌恐怕難以改變它的優(yōu)勢(shì),大資本對(duì)隆基股份的預(yù)期依然是良好的,比如隆基股份最近一次股權(quán)大變動(dòng),就引進(jìn)了著名的高瓴資本。
隆基股份的優(yōu)勢(shì)2020年12月20日,高瓴資本以158億元的的價(jià)格受讓了隆基股份創(chuàng)始人之一李春安手中持有的6%公司股份,一舉成為了隆基股份第二大股東。受此消息影響,隆基股份連日暴漲,市盈率達(dá)到40倍以上,給隆基股份創(chuàng)造了大量泡沫。而今,市場(chǎng)回調(diào),高瓴資本進(jìn)入推高的股價(jià)仿佛走了一圈又回來了。高瓴資本入股的價(jià)格在70元左右每股,而目前市場(chǎng)價(jià)已經(jīng)跌回到85元每股,接近高瓴的成本價(jià)位。高瓴資本的入股,也是因?yàn)榭春寐』煞莸奈磥戆l(fā)展。隆基股份作為光伏行業(yè)龍頭,其各方面表現(xiàn)都非常亮眼。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,隆基股份近三年的營(yíng)業(yè)收入和凈利潤(rùn)都增長(zhǎng)非???,2020年的盈利增速依然能達(dá)到70%,凈利潤(rùn)達(dá)到80億元!如此高的凈利潤(rùn)增速是各個(gè)行業(yè)內(nèi)都很罕見的,如果這個(gè)增速能夠保持下去將是非??膳碌摹w根結(jié)底,隆基股份是在戰(zhàn)略上完勝了所有的同行,才有了今天這般出色的表現(xiàn)。成立于2000年的隆基股份,主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)是多晶硅片生產(chǎn)。
 
      當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)上有單晶硅片和多晶硅片兩種主要生產(chǎn)方向,多晶硅片的生產(chǎn)成本相對(duì)單晶硅片低,絕大多數(shù)的光伏企業(yè)都選擇了較為成熟的多晶硅片,對(duì)單晶硅片持觀望態(tài)度。但是,隆基股份創(chuàng)始人團(tuán)隊(duì)卻在實(shí)驗(yàn)中發(fā)現(xiàn),未來單晶硅片的生產(chǎn)成本將會(huì)大幅度下降,成為光伏行業(yè)的主流。因此,2006年,隆基股份毫不猶豫的將公司定位轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閱尉Ч杵a(chǎn),逆市場(chǎng)潮流前進(jìn)。事實(shí)果真團(tuán)隊(duì)所料,經(jīng)過多年的發(fā)展,單晶硅片的生產(chǎn)成本得到了大幅度下降。2012年,隆基股份生產(chǎn)多晶硅片的成本約為2.12元每片,2019年,這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)下降到了0.74元每片。隨著成本下降以及隆基股份的不斷擴(kuò)張,公司的營(yíng)收和凈利潤(rùn)不斷上漲,加上入局早,隆基股份逐步擴(kuò)張成為光伏行業(yè)的龍頭企業(yè),營(yíng)業(yè)收入和凈利潤(rùn)呈現(xiàn)爆發(fā)式的增長(zhǎng)。
高瓴資本的進(jìn)入,代表著張磊對(duì)隆基股份持樂觀態(tài)度,未來還有很大的發(fā)展空間。兩年的限售期未到,高瓴的股權(quán)投資依然處于盈利狀態(tài),兩年后的價(jià)格還未可知。3月10日,A股已經(jīng)連續(xù)三根大陰線,連跌三天后,市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)開始出現(xiàn)“抄底”之聲了!畢竟暴跌是抄底的好機(jī)會(huì),市場(chǎng)上抄底之聲此起彼伏的時(shí)候,說明已經(jīng)有資金開始進(jìn)入了。那么,隆基股份這時(shí)候值得抄底嗎?

After the Spring Festival, A shares entered A comprehensive pullback, stock prices have plummeted for days.Before the Spring Festival fund group of leading stocks, in the pullback fell the fastest, including the photovoltaic industry leading stocks - Longji shares. Since Feb. 28, Longji shares have been in a correction, falling more or less, especially in the last few days, the decline is more severe.

On March 8, Longji shares fell by the limit, and on March 9, they continued to drop by 6.15%. By the close of the market on March 10, Longji shares closed at 85 yuan per share, down 32% from the peak of 125 yuan per share. Calculated at the latest price, compared to the peak of the stock price, Longji shares have evaporated as high as more than 150 billion yuan of market value!Longji shares why the day after day slump or even a single day limit?

From the plate point of view, the whole photovoltaic plate is declining, the price of photovoltaic raw materials.Data show that from last week, the price of photovoltaic raw materials rose significantly.

Among them, the average transaction price of domestic single crystal refeed was 110.8 yuan per kg, up 4.23% month-on-month;The average transaction price of single crystal compact material was 108 yuan per kg, up 4.45% month-on-month; Single crystal cauliflower material transaction average price of 105.3 yuan per kg, up 4.88%;The average price of polycrystalline materials was 63.3 yuan per kg, up 8.58% month-on-month. Raw material prices, resulting in rising costs, Longji shares can only announce its silicon wafer product price, up about 9%!Product prices rise, the whole photovoltaic industry is bearish, Longji shares as a well-deserved leader in the photovoltaic industry, the stock price is affected by the fall is reasonable, but still not to reach the extent of the limit. The other factor that affects the market is the current mood.The recent market fund stampede is still continuing to ferment, and Longji shares happen to be a member of the fund group. Data show that Longji shares are a large number of fund heavy warehouse holdings, is a partial stock fund heavy warehouse stocks.Among them, Guangfa Fund Management Co., Ltd. holds the share of Longji shares accounted for 2.49%! As the leading stock of the photovoltaic industry, a large number of fund companies are holding heavy warehouse is understandable. But this kind of solidarity is not sustainable. Due to the reversal of market sentiment, the fund redemption wave appeared, in order to deal with the fund companies had to clear part of the weighted stocks, which also exacerbated the decline of Longji shares, leading to a direct drop in the limit on March 8.However, the collapse of Longji shares is probably difficult to change its advantages. Big capital's expectation of Longji shares is still good. For example, Longji shares introduced the famous Hillhouse capital in the latest major equity change.

On December 20, 2020, Hillhouse Capital transferred 6% of the company's shares held by Li Chun 'an, one of the founders of Longji, at a price of 15.8 billion yuan, and became the second largest shareholder of Longji. Affected by this news, Longji shares skyrocketed for days, the price-earnings ratio reached more than 40 times, creating a large number of bubbles to Longji shares. Now, the market has pulled back, and Hillhouse's entry to push up the share price seems to have come full circle and come back. The investment price of Hillhouse Capital is around 70 yuan per share, while the current market price has fallen back to 85 yuan per share, which is close to the cost price of Hillhouse Capital. Hillhouse Capital's investment is also because it is optimistic about the future development of Longji shares.Longji shares as a leader in the photovoltaic industry, its performance in all aspects is very bright. Data show that the operating income and net profit of Longji shares in the past three years have grown very fast, and the profit growth rate in 2020 can still reach 70%, and the net profit reaches 8 billion yuan! Such a high net profit growth rate is very rare in any industry, if this growth rate can be maintained will be very terrible.In the final analysis, Longji shares are in the strategic victory over all the peers, just have today's excellent performance. Founded in 2000, Longji shares, the main business is the production of polysilicon wafers.

At that time, there were two main production directions in the market: monocrystalline silicon wafer and polycrystalline silicon wafer. The production cost of polycrystalline silicon wafer was lower than that of monocrystalline silicon wafer. The vast majority of photovoltaic enterprises chose relatively mature polycrystalline silicon wafer and took a wait-and-see attitude to monocrystalline silicon wafer. However, the founder team of Longji shares has found in the experiment that the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers in the future will be greatly reduced and become the mainstream of the photovoltaic industry.Therefore, in 2006, Longji shares did not hesitate to change the company's positioning into monocrystalline silicon wafer production, against the trend of the market. As the team expected, after years of development, the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been greatly reduced.In 2012, Lonji's cost of producing polysilicon wafers was about 2.12 yuan per wafer. In 2019, this figure has dropped to 0.74 yuan per wafer. With the decrease of costs and the continuous expansion of Longji shares, the company's revenue and net profit keep rising. With the early entry, Longji shares gradually expanded to become the leading enterprise in the photovoltaic industry, and its operating income and net profit showed explosive growth.

The entry of Hillhouse Capital represents Zhang Lei's optimistic attitude towards Longji shares, which still has great development space in the future. Hillhouse's equity investment is still profitable, and the price after two years is not yet known.On March 10, A has been three consecutive big Yin line, even fell three days later, the market has begun to appear "bottom copy" the sound! After all, the slump is a good opportunity to bottom, bottom on the market when the voice of the rise and fall, that has begun to enter the capital.So, Longji shares at this time is worth bottom-hunting?


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