據(jù)央視，今天上午9點30分，全國碳排放權交易在上海環(huán)境能源交易所正式啟動。9點30分，首筆全國碳交易已經(jīng)撮合成功，價格為每噸52.78元，總共成交16萬噸，交易額為790萬元。據(jù)悉，首批參與全國碳排放權交易的發(fā)電行業(yè)重點排放單位超過了2162家，這些企業(yè)碳排放量超過40億噸二氧化碳，意味著中國的碳排放權交易市場，將成為全球覆蓋溫室氣體排放量規(guī)模最大的碳市場。
碳交易所到底會有什么影響？
1.碳交易所如何影響碳排放？
碳交易所主要有兩個交易品種：碳配額和CCER。其中碳配額是市場的硬通貨，CCER相對來說是一種補充機制，受政策影響更大。碳交易所的目標是通過市場化的碳價去影響企業(yè)的成本，碳價越高碳排放量就會越少。簡單來說，當碳價提升，會提高企業(yè)的成本，當企業(yè)的利潤減少甚至虧錢了之后，就會主動減產(chǎn)，從而降低碳排放的量。另外，也會推動企業(yè)升級設備，降低單位能耗。
2.碳排放的行業(yè)分布情況？
根據(jù)國家能源局的數(shù)據(jù)，我國2019年碳排放的行業(yè)占比中，電力行業(yè)占了43%。而此次碳交易所納入的首批行業(yè)也正是電力行業(yè)。十四五期間還將納入建材、鋼鐵、有色等行業(yè)，未來碳交易所將幾乎涵蓋所有的主要碳排放行業(yè)。

3.碳配額如何確定？
上文提到碳交易所的交易標的分為兩大類：政府分配的碳排放權和國家核證資源減排量（CCER），究竟是什么？以及配額如何計算？
1）碳配額：就是企業(yè)獲得的碳排放額度，初期由相關部門免費發(fā)放。
每個企業(yè)獲得的配額計算公式：機組配額總量 = 供電基準值 * 實際供電量 * 修正系數(shù) + 供熱基準值 * 實際供熱量（簡單來講，相關部門通過行業(yè)的歷史排碳強度確定一個基準線，結合企業(yè)的產(chǎn)能情況，就可以知道企業(yè)的碳排放額度。舉個例子，假如電力企業(yè)的基準排放強度是1，產(chǎn)能是100度電，可以算出碳排放額度等于100。假如企業(yè)通過設備升級使得碳排放量低于行業(yè)平均，就會有富余的碳排放額度。假如某龍頭企業(yè)的實際排放強度僅0.8，發(fā)100度電只會消耗80的碳排放額度，那么剩余的額度完全可以拿到市場上交易獲利。反過來說，假如企業(yè)的碳排放強度高于行業(yè)平均水平，則產(chǎn)能都無法開滿，需要額外購買碳排放權，導致成本的增加。
2）國家核證自愿減排量：一些經(jīng)過主管部門申請備案的“減排方法學”，比如新能源、水電、林業(yè)碳匯、沼氣等254個項目，可以自主申請CCER。但是重點排放單位最多只可以用5%的CCER抵消碳排放配額的缺口，上海碳交易所初期只允許供應CCER的1%于市場，導致價格低迷。需要注意的是，在2017年發(fā)改委暫緩受理CCER方法學，導致CCER供給受限，部分交易價格上漲明顯。
4.碳排放量如何測量？
各個行業(yè)的碳排放量測量方法略有不同，但是中心思想大體分為兩種，下面以電力企業(yè)為例：
1）直接測量：把在線監(jiān)測的儀器放在電廠煙氣的出口測量氣體排放量，目前國內(nèi)沒有采用，主要因為這項技術還沒有成熟。
2）分部計算：首先測算消耗化石燃料產(chǎn)生的排放，用了多少化石燃料、多少煤、多少的燃油等，根據(jù)一些經(jīng)驗或實測得到元素的含碳量，最后再把二者相乘就得到直接排放量。
5.碳交易所試點的情況？
早在2011年開始，我國8個省市就已經(jīng)陸續(xù)展開了碳交易的試點。但是，各個省市納入碳交易的行業(yè)范圍和標準都有不同，從下圖可以看出，上海、北京、廣東涵蓋的行業(yè)范圍更廣。由于納入的行業(yè)和標準不同，比如北京把碳排放量5000噸以上的都納入了碳交易的范圍，因此納入的單位數(shù)量達到了947家；重慶的納入標準是碳排放量在2萬噸以上，因此納入的單位數(shù)量只有230家。這直接導致了各地的碳價格差異也較大，2020年期間，北京市的碳排放配額成交均價在73-87元/噸；同期重慶碳價格僅為5.576元/噸。那么從試點地區(qū)的情況來看，影響碳價主要是兩個方面：政策和各地不同的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平。

1）碳市場是一個政策性市場，所以政策是影響碳價最主要的一個環(huán)節(jié)。試點期間幾個區(qū)域碳市場都是獨立的，意味著每個碳市場都有自己相關的一些政策發(fā)布。比如北京納入企業(yè)的標準是年排放量達到5000噸，而上海納入標準是要達到2萬噸以上。
2）北京、上海、重慶、天津、廣東、湖北等試點地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構不一樣，所以經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平也不一樣，每個地區(qū)的減排成本也就造成了價格也是不一樣的。
6.未來碳價會上漲嗎？
碳價主要受供給和需求同時影響，其中供給總量主要由頂層決定，假如在給定的供給下，需求超出預期，那么碳價就會上漲。參考歐盟，在碳交易推出的初期，碳價波動不大，但是隨著法規(guī)的完善，歐盟市場碳價最高點達到380元/噸。相比之下，我國在試點期間碳價歷史最高點是深圳創(chuàng)下的122.97元/噸。未來隨著我國碳交易納入的行業(yè)增多，法規(guī)更加完善后，碳價的空間還有很大。

According to CCTV, a nationwide trading of carbon emission rights was officially launched on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange at 9:30 am today.By 9:30 a.m., the first national carbon deal had been sealed, at 52.78 yuan per ton, for a total of 160,000 tons worth 7.9 million yuan.It is reported that the first batch of key emitters in the power generation industry to participate in the national carbon emission trading more than 2,162 enterprises, the carbon emissions of these enterprises more than 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide, means that China's carbon emission trading market, will become the world's largest carbon market covering greenhouse gas emissions.

What exactly will be the impact of carbon exchanges?

1. How do carbon exchanges affect carbon emissions?

There are two main types of carbon exchange: carbon quota and CCER.Among them, carbon quota is the hard currency of the market, while CCER is a supplementary mechanism, which is more affected by policies. The goal of a carbon exchange is to influence the cost of enterprises through a market-oriented carbon price. The higher the carbon price, the less carbon emissions will be emitted. Simply put, when the carbon price increases, the cost of enterprises will increase. When the profits of enterprises decrease or even the loss of money, they will take the initiative to reduce production, thus reducing the amount of carbon emissions. In addition, it will also encourage enterprises to upgrade equipment and reduce energy consumption per unit.

2. Industrial distribution of carbon emissions?

According to the National Energy Administration, the power sector accounted for 43 percent of China's carbon emissions in 2019.One of the first industries to be included in the carbon exchange is electricity.During the 14th five-year plan period, building materials, steel, non-ferrous and other industries will be included. In the future, the carbon exchange will cover almost all major carbon emission industries.

3. How are carbon quotas determined?

As mentioned above, the trading objects of the carbon exchange are divided into two categories: the carbon emission rights allocated by the government and the national certified Resource Emission Reduction (CCER). And how are quotas calculated?

1) Carbon quota: refers to the carbon emission quota obtained by enterprises, which will be issued free of charge by relevant departments in the initial stage.

Every enterprise quota calculation formula obtained: basic value = total power supply unit quota actual basic value correction coefficient + heating supply * * * actual amount heating (simple, relevant departments through trade carbon intensity to determine a baseline, the history of combining enterprise's production capacity, can know enterprise carbon credits. For example, if the baseline emission intensity of the power company is 1 and the capacity is 100 KWH, the carbon emission allowance can be calculated to be equal to 100. If companies upgrade their equipment to lower their carbon emissions than the industry average, there will be extra credits. If the actual emission intensity of a leading enterprise is only 0.8, generating 100 KWH of electricity will only consume 80 percent of the carbon emission quota, then the remaining quota can be traded in the market for profit. On the other hand, if the carbon emission intensity of the enterprise is higher than the average level of the industry, the capacity cannot be fully opened and additional carbon emission rights need to be purchased, resulting in an increase in costs.

2) Voluntary emission reduction certified by the State: Some "emission reduction methodology" applied for record by the competent authorities, such as new energy, hydropower, forestry carbon sequestration, methane and other 254 projects, can independently apply for CCER. However, key emitters can only use 5% CCER at most to offset the gap of carbon emission quota. The Shanghai Carbon Exchange allowed only 1% CCER to be supplied to the market in the initial stage, leading to low prices. It should be noted that in 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission suspended the acceptance of CCER methodology, resulting in limited supply of CCER and significant increase in some transaction prices.

4. How are carbon emissions measured?

The measurement methods of carbon emissions are slightly different in different industries, but the central ideas are generally divided into two kinds. The following is an example of electric power enterprises:

1) Direct measurement: the on-line monitoring instrument is placed at the outlet of power plant flue gas to measure gas emissions, which is not adopted in China at present, mainly because this technology is not mature.

2) Partial calculation: first calculate the emissions generated by consuming fossil fuels, how much fossil fuels, coal and fuel oil are used, and then calculate the carbon content of elements based on some experience or actual measurement. Finally, multiply the two to get the direct emissions.

5. What about the carbon exchange pilot?

As early as 2011, eight provinces and cities in China have launched carbon trading pilot programs.However, the scope and standards of industries included in carbon trading vary from province to province. As can be seen from the figure below, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong cover a wider range of industries. Due to the different industries and standards included, for example, Beijing included all units that emit more than 5,000 tons of carbon in the scope of carbon trading, so the number of units included reached 947; Chongqing's criteria for inclusion is to emit more than 20,000 tons of carbon, so only 230 units will be included.This directly leads to a large difference in carbon prices across the region. During 2020, the average transaction price of carbon emission quota in Beijing is 73-87 yuan/ton. In the same period, the carbon price in Chongqing was only 5.576 yuan per ton.From the perspective of the pilot areas, the carbon price is mainly influenced by two aspects: policies and different economic development levels in different regions.

1) Carbon market is a policy market, so policy is the most important link affecting carbon price.During the pilot period, several regional carbon markets were independent, meaning that each carbon market had its own policy announcements. For example, Beijing's inclusion standard is 5,000 tons of annual emissions, while Shanghai's inclusion standard is 20,000 tons or more.

2) The industrial structure of Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hubei and other pilot areas is different, so the level of economic development is also different, and the cost of emission reduction in each area is also different.

6. Will carbon prices rise in the future?

The carbon price is mainly affected by both supply and demand, and the total supply is mainly determined by the top level. If the demand exceeds expectations under a given supply, the carbon price will rise. Referring to the European Union, in the early stage of carbon trading, the carbon price fluctuated little, but with the improvement of regulations, the highest carbon price in the European Union market reached 380 yuan/ton.By contrast, China's highest carbon price during the pilot period was 122.97 yuan per ton in Shenzhen. In the future, as more industries are included in China's carbon trading and regulations are more perfect, there is still a lot of room for carbon pricing.