世界光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的總規(guī)模超過(guò)500億美元，未來(lái)家電光伏及自發(fā)自用應(yīng)用的興起，將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的規(guī)模。因此，光伏是任何一個(gè)發(fā)展先進(jìn)制造業(yè)的地區(qū)所必須追逐的方向。2010-2011年的世界光伏狂潮，促使全國(guó)各地大力引入光伏制造項(xiàng)目，太陽(yáng)能的無(wú)限光芒使各地政府和企業(yè)一起奮不顧身地跳進(jìn)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的大熔爐中。2012-2013年，光伏的熱潮逐漸冷卻，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入了漫長(zhǎng)的寒冬。企業(yè)紛紛剎車和減慢前進(jìn)的速度，理想和現(xiàn)實(shí)巨大的落差使光伏紛爭(zhēng)四起，破產(chǎn)和債務(wù)重組成為了光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的主題詞。在東莞，宏威數(shù)碼與東莞信托及南城啟泰的商業(yè)誤會(huì)也演變成全國(guó)首宗以刑事手段解決光伏紛爭(zhēng)的個(gè)案。雖然事件仍未落幕，但這一獨(dú)立事件不應(yīng)成為東莞在光伏道路上前進(jìn)的絆腳石。高端產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展從來(lái)都非坦途，我們應(yīng)該吸取經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)，痛定思痛，跌倒了再爬起來(lái)，共同謀劃 東莞市光伏太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的道路，在光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的困難中找尋發(fā)展的機(jī)會(huì)。
      晶硅光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)非東莞追逐的方向，  晶硅光伏的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)核心是廉價(jià)的電力及基礎(chǔ)資源，這都是東莞所欠缺的，而當(dāng)?shù)氐沫h(huán)境承載能力也有限，故此，在欠缺基本的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)下，晶硅制造鏈條絕非東莞的發(fā)展方向。現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是多維度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，包括了企業(yè)與企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，地區(qū)供應(yīng)鏈與地區(qū)供應(yīng)鏈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，還有就是政府與政府之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。類似光伏這種大規(guī)模的制造業(yè)，沒(méi)有政府的支持是不可能的。因此，世界各國(guó)都以各種的方式對(duì)光伏制造業(yè)提供補(bǔ)助。當(dāng)前我國(guó)的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)主要是以晶硅光伏為主，各光伏大省和地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)布局于10年前已形成非常成熟的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。東莞今天想以傳統(tǒng)的晶硅作為切入點(diǎn)是不可能的，但反過(guò)來(lái)說(shuō)，東莞的晶硅包袱也小，可以在光伏的新浪潮中以新技術(shù)突圍。此外，晶硅技術(shù)起源于上世紀(jì)50年代，制造鏈條的某些環(huán)節(jié)能耗高污染大。這種以廉價(jià)資源的消耗作為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)手段的工業(yè)并不適合東莞。故此，不管從產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度，還是從資源利用的角度，晶硅都不是廣東和東莞的選擇。

布局新一代高效薄膜光伏電池

       分布式光伏最大的優(yōu)點(diǎn)是所發(fā)的電力就地就近消耗，因此對(duì)電網(wǎng)構(gòu)成的壓力小，符合經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。而大規(guī)模的地面電站則不一樣，光伏電力通過(guò)高壓電網(wǎng)傳向遠(yuǎn)方，由于光伏發(fā)電每天的工作時(shí)數(shù)低，但卻占用與火電同樣的電網(wǎng)資源，因此不符合電網(wǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，道理就像建一條只有白天通車晚上關(guān)閉的高速公路一樣不劃算。此外，光伏電力在分布式發(fā)電的領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)基本可實(shí)現(xiàn)自發(fā)自用概念下的平價(jià)并網(wǎng)，但大型地面光伏電站則和火電成本仍有距離。因此，從經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度和公用資源使用的角度出發(fā)，分布式發(fā)電都是當(dāng)前和未來(lái)世界的主流。由于分布式光伏的安裝載體是屋面，因此，在面積條件受限制的情況下，轉(zhuǎn)效越高的光伏電池越受歡迎，因?yàn)檩^高的功率密度使同樣的屋面可生產(chǎn)更多的電力。而當(dāng)前世界上轉(zhuǎn)效最高的商業(yè)化光伏電池，便是通過(guò)融合薄膜和N型硅片技術(shù)產(chǎn)生的單晶薄膜太陽(yáng)能電池。由于技術(shù)以真空鍍膜為核心，傳統(tǒng)的晶硅業(yè)者并不具備優(yōu)勢(shì)，一切得從頭再來(lái)。而這種以薄膜為核心的光伏電池，也可申請(qǐng)豁免反傾銷稅，為后來(lái)者提供競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的條件，突破歐美對(duì)華光伏實(shí)施的反傾銷制裁。東莞要在光伏的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中突圍，必須結(jié)合政府和民間的力量發(fā)展以薄膜技術(shù)為核心的第二代高轉(zhuǎn)效光伏。而東莞在這方面是具備比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的——同時(shí)具備成套裝備的能力（這是目前國(guó)內(nèi)唯一），具備鍍膜材料、封裝材料的完整供應(yīng)鏈。這讓東莞不單只可快速建立產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)，也可向全國(guó)進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)輸出，故此，快下決心布局新一代高效薄膜電池是東莞發(fā)展先進(jìn)制造業(yè)應(yīng)走的道路之一。
         以本地市場(chǎng)培育本地的新興高效光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)，東莞的屋面資源豐富，官方估計(jì)可以安裝3GW的光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)，這表示市場(chǎng)可容納超過(guò)200億的投資，并為光伏制造鏈條帶來(lái)超過(guò)150億的訂單。因此，不利用這一塊資源去扶持本地光伏制造業(yè)的發(fā)展是浪費(fèi)的。由另一個(gè)角度看，這樣龐大的市場(chǎng)不是政府通過(guò)公共財(cái)政資源的補(bǔ)貼可以推動(dòng)的。必須通過(guò)推出新型的政策工具，利用保險(xiǎn)杠桿釋放金融杠桿，充分利用民間資本及金融資本去推動(dòng)終端市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展，并利用本地終端市場(chǎng)需求拉動(dòng)本地光伏制造鏈條及新能源服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。當(dāng)前，我國(guó)發(fā)展分布式發(fā)電遇到的最大的問(wèn)題不是投資回報(bào)率的問(wèn)題，而是項(xiàng)目沒(méi)法進(jìn)行獨(dú)立和長(zhǎng)期的融資的問(wèn)題。原因是政策的設(shè)計(jì)沒(méi)有為光伏發(fā)電提供長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定可依靠的現(xiàn)金流，也沒(méi)有信用度夠高的購(gòu)電方。因此，業(yè)主必須以房產(chǎn)或土地作抵押，銀行才會(huì)為項(xiàng)目提供融資，這就對(duì)光伏發(fā)電的市場(chǎng)發(fā)展造成制約。而各地政府在國(guó)家補(bǔ)助提供得已經(jīng)夠高的投資回報(bào)率上，再進(jìn)行額外的補(bǔ)貼的做法是錯(cuò)誤的。應(yīng)有由減低投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和突破融資障礙入手。突破了融資的障礙，業(yè)主便可以利用貸款杠桿去提高股本的回報(bào)率，變相降低了對(duì)補(bǔ)貼額度的要求。

       在降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面，政府可引入外國(guó)的保險(xiǎn)公司或推動(dòng)本地的保險(xiǎn)公司為光伏項(xiàng)目提供發(fā)電量的全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)，由歐洲的經(jīng)驗(yàn)總結(jié)來(lái)看，十年的全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)只增加系統(tǒng)投資1.5%。當(dāng)前分布式發(fā)電的回報(bào)由兩部分構(gòu)成，第一是國(guó)家提供的0.42元/度的補(bǔ)貼，第二是用戶自用所節(jié)省的電費(fèi)。由于用戶自用是一個(gè)變量，現(xiàn)金流變得不可預(yù)測(cè)，而用戶的長(zhǎng)期信用不一定夠高，光伏資產(chǎn)又沒(méi)有抵押價(jià)值，故此造成融資的障礙。要解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題要通過(guò)保險(xiǎn)的概念，將單一業(yè)主的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變成全民信用的平均風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并由光伏保險(xiǎn)公司向銀行提供擔(dān)保，使銀行放心釋放長(zhǎng)期資本。在以上的操作中，光伏保險(xiǎn)公司解決了項(xiàng)目的發(fā)電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題，而光伏擔(dān)保公司則解決了業(yè)主的信用問(wèn)題。由外國(guó)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，光伏發(fā)電業(yè)主的違約率是很低的，而且可利用大數(shù)法則把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散。
       總結(jié)：東莞和其他晶硅光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的聚集區(qū)比較而言，欠缺比較優(yōu)勢(shì)，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈不完整也不成熟，因此以廉價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)資源作為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)手段的晶硅光伏并非東莞的選擇。光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)前景光明，家電光伏及自發(fā)自用概念的推廣將促使世界光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入新的浪潮。以技術(shù)和裝備為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)手段的高效薄膜光伏是東莞未來(lái)的方向，東莞過(guò)去五年在技術(shù)和裝備制造能力的累積使東莞具有發(fā)展高效薄膜光伏電池的優(yōu)勢(shì)。通過(guò)創(chuàng)新的政策性保險(xiǎn)擔(dān)保公司結(jié)合引進(jìn)的全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)電保障可有效釋放當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)。因此，以高效光伏作為切入點(diǎn)，大力發(fā)展薄膜高效光伏是東莞未來(lái)應(yīng)探索的道路。

The total size of the world photovoltaic industry is more than 50 billion US dollars, and the rise of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use applications will further expand the scale of the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, photovoltaic is the direction that any region that develops advanced manufacturing must pursue.From 2010 to 2011, the world photovoltaic frenzy, to promote the introduction of photovoltaic manufacturing projects throughout the country, the infinite light of solar energy so that governments and enterprises around the melting pot of the photovoltaic industry together regardless of their own lives. From 2012 to 2013, the photovoltaic boom gradually cooled down, and the photovoltaic industry entered a long winter.Enterprises brake and slow down the speed of progress, the huge gap between ideal and reality makes photovoltaic disputes everywhere, bankruptcy and debt restructuring has become the theme of the photovoltaic industry. In Dongguan, the commercial misunderstanding between Hongwei Digital and Dongguan Trust and Nancheng Qitai also evolved into the first case of photovoltaic dispute settled by criminal means in China. Although the event is still not over, but this independent event should not become a stumbling block in dongguan photovoltaic road forward.The development of high-end industry is never smooth, we should learn from the experience and lessons, reflect on the pain, fall and then climb up, together plan the future of dongguan photovoltaic road, in the photovoltaic industry to find opportunities for development in the difficulties.

Crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry is not the direction pursued by Dongguan. The core of crystalline silicon photovoltaic competition is cheap electricity and basic resources, which are lacking in Dongguan, and the local environmental carrying capacity is also limited. Therefore, in the absence of basic comparative advantages, crystalline silicon manufacturing chain is not the development direction of Dongguan. The competition of modern industry is multi-dimensional competition, including the competition between enterprises, regional supply chain and regional supply chain, and the competition between governments. Large-scale manufacturing, such as photovoltaic, is impossible without government support.Therefore, countries all over the world provide subsidies to the photovoltaic manufacturing industry in various ways. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is mainly based on crystalline silicon photovoltaic, the layout of photovoltaic provinces and regions in 10 years ago has formed a very mature industrial chain. Today, it is impossible for Dongguan to take the traditional silicon as a breakthrough point, but conversely, dongguan has a small silicon pack, which can break through with new technologies in the new wave of photovoltaic. In addition, crystalline silicon technology originated in the 1950s, and some parts of the manufacturing chain are energy-intensive and polluting.The consumption of cheap resources as a means of competition in the industry is not suitable for Dongguan. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of industrial competition or resource utilization, crystal silicon is not the choice of Guangdong and Dongguan.

Layout of a new generation of efficient thin film photovoltaic cells

The biggest advantage of distributed photovoltaic is that the power generated is consumed locally and nearby, so the pressure on the power grid is small, which is in line with economic benefits. However, large-scale ground power stations are different. Photovoltaic power is transmitted to distant places through high-voltage power grids. Since photovoltaic power generation has low working hours per day, but it takes up the same power grid resources as thermal power, it is not in line with the economic benefits of power grids, just like building a highway that can only be opened during the day and closed at night.In addition, in the field of distributed power generation, photovoltaic power has basically achieved parity grid connection under the concept of self-use, but large-scale ground photovoltaic power stations are still far from the cost of thermal power. Therefore, from the perspective of economics and the use of public resources, distributed generation is the mainstream of the current and future world.Since the roof is the installation carrier of distributed pv, the more efficient the photovoltaic cells are, the more popular they are under limited area conditions, because the higher power density enables the same roof to produce more electricity. Currently, the most efficient commercial photovoltaic cell in the world is a single crystal thin film solar cell produced by fusing thin film and N-type silicon wafer technology. Because vacuum coating is the core of the technology, traditional silicon manufacturers do not have an advantage and have to start from scratch.This kind of photovoltaic cells with thin film as the core can also apply for exemption from anti-dumping duties, providing conditions for the competition of latecomers and breaking through the anti-dumping sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Photovoltaic. In order for Dongguan to break out in the competition of photovoltaic, it is necessary to develop the second generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic with thin film technology as the core by combining government and civil forces.Dongguan has a comparative advantage in this respect -- it also has the ability of complete sets of equipment (the only one in China at present) and a complete supply chain of coating materials and packaging materials. This allows Dongguan not only to quickly establish industrial advantages, but also to the national industrial output, therefore, quickly determined layout of a new generation of efficient thin film battery is one of the roads that Dongguan should take to develop advanced manufacturing.

The city is rich in roofing resources. The official estimate is that 3GW of photovoltaic power generation systems can be installed in Dongguan, which means that the market can accommodate more than 20 billion yuan of investment and bring more than 15 billion yuan of orders for the photovoltaic manufacturing chain. Therefore, it is a waste not to use this resource to support the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing industry.From another point of view, such a large market can not be promoted by the government through subsidies of public financial resources. It is necessary to launch new policy tools, use insurance lever to release financial lever, make full use of private capital and financial capital to promote the development of the end market, and use local end market demand to drive the development of local photovoltaic manufacturing chain and new energy service industry.At present, the biggest problem in the development of distributed power generation in China is not the problem of return on investment, but the problem of independent and long-term financing of the project. The reason is that the policy design does not provide long-term stable cash flow for photovoltaic power generation, nor does it have a credible buyer.Therefore, property owners must pledge their property or land as collateral before banks can provide financing for projects, which restricts the market development of photovoltaic power generation. And it would be wrong for local governments to add subsidies to the already high rate of return on investment provided by state aid.We should start with reducing investment risk and breaking through financing obstacles. By breaking through the financing barrier, owners can leverage their loans to increase the return on equity, thereby reducing the amount of subsidy required.

In terms of risk reduction, the government can introduce foreign insurance companies or promote local insurance companies to provide full-risk insurance of electricity generation for photovoltaic projects. According to the experience of Europe, the ten-year full-risk insurance only increases system investment by 1.5%. At present, the return of distributed generation consists of two parts: the first is the subsidy of 0.42 yuan/KWH provided by the state, and the second is the electricity saved by users for their own use. As user's self-use is a variable, cash flow is unpredictable, and user's long-term credit may not be high enough, and photovoltaic assets have no collateral value, thus causing financing obstacles. To solve this problem, the concept of insurance will change the risk of single owner into the average risk of universal credit, and the photovoltaic insurance company will provide guarantees to banks, so that banks can release long-term capital with confidence.In the above operation, the PV insurance company solved the generation risk problem of the project, while the PV guarantee company solved the credit problem of the owner. From foreign experience, the default rate of photovoltaic power generation owners is very low, and the law of large numbers can be used to spread the risk.

Conclusion: Compared with other clusters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, Dongguan lacks comparative advantages and the industrial chain is incomplete and immature. Therefore, the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry with cheap basic resources as a means of competition is not the choice of Dongguan. Photovoltaic industry has a bright future, and the promotion of home appliance photovoltaic and self-use concept will promote the world photovoltaic industry into a new wave. High efficiency thin film photovoltaic with technology and equipment as the means of competition is the future direction of Dongguan, Dongguan in the past five years in the accumulation of technology and equipment manufacturing capacity so that dongguan has the advantage of developing high efficiency thin film photovoltaic cells. Innovative policy-based insurance guarantee companies combined with the introduction of full-risk power generation guarantee can effectively unleash the local market. Therefore, with efficient photovoltaic as the entry point, to vigorously develop thin-film efficient photovoltaic is the road that Dongguan should explore in the future.